Monday, 25 January 2010

Will Gordon Go For It ?

Much febrile speculation this afternoon about Gordon Brown calling a snap General Election tomorrow for February 25th or March 4th. It would certainly be a bold move and as such rather out of character for a man who seems to want to play it safe every time.

That said, going sooner rather than later has its advantages. The Conservative advantage in money would be neutralised to some extent and the likely announcement of the end to the recession (based on official GDP numbers) might be seen as offering a window of opportunity based on an uptick in consumer confidence.

I don't think it would make that much difference to be honest - the anti-Brown vote is strong and solid and this is confirmed by tonight's ICM poll. If Brown hangs on until May 6th or June 3rd he is only postponing the inevitable. It is indeed possible that going now might lessen the final defeat but that will be small comfort.

The Conservatives remain solidly at or around 40% with little sign of that vote cracking though the heat of a full-blooded campaign will be a test. The Liberal Democrats will be encouraged by tonight's 21% poll number which is where they were in January 2005. The base line figures show a 9% swing from Labour to the Tories which on its own is barely enough for a majority for David Cameron. The evidence from the marginals poll yesterday, however, suggests a stronger Conservative performance in the seats they need to win.

I don't expect Gordon Brown to go to the Palace tomorrow but you never know.....

No comments: