Saturday, 23 January 2010

Saturday Night is Polls Night (part 1)

As the General Election approaches, every opinion poll is going to be micro-analysed by the folks on and elsewhere and the spinners and supporters of all parties are already putting their individual slant on the data and what it means.

The two important surveys are first a poll of Conservative - Labour marginals produced by ICM for News of the World. The report on this from Anthony Wells is as always informative. The Conservatives are doing better in the key marginals than the headline polls suggest and the 8.3% swing suggests a big loss of Labour seats. The key Conservative-Lib Dem marginals haven't been surveyed to the same extent though they doubtless well be and will doubtless show big swings to the Tories.

The second survey is a ComRes poll in the Sunday Mirror which has the Conservatives on 38%, Labour on 29% and the Lib Dems on 19%. I've long posited that the parties have traded in a rough 40-30-20-10 (Others) range for some time. At the moment, I'm calling it 40-, 30-, 20-, 10+ meaning the main parties are just off their median levels and the Others are doing slightly better.

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