Monday 20 October 2008

Obama on the brink....14 days to go.

The US presidential election has been a remarkable event. In many ways, whoever wins between Barack Obama and John McCain is of less importance than the triumph of the political process. Whatever its failings and flaws, the US system has been undoubtedly strengthened by the campaign process.

With two weeks to go and with all the debates over, the two candidates and their vice-presidential colleagues now have the fearsome routine of a near twenty-four hour routine of speeches and visits across a number of marginal or "swing" states. Barack Obama holds a small but significant lead (probably in the range 3-7%) but, more significantly, Obama leads in a number of key states which, if won by the Democrats, will guarantee a majority in the Electoral College which ultimately decides the election.

My view has long been that IF the Democrats win Florida they can afford not to win Ohio. It also looks as though the Democrats will win Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico which will put Obama over 300 Electoral College votes. It does McCain no good piling up huge majorities in states like Kentucky, Arkansas and Wyoming if he fails to win the larger states.

Colin Powell's endorsement of Obama is helpful but probably not too significant. The race may tighten but increased voter registration in a number of states makes me think Obama will poll better in places like North Carolina and even Georgia than some polls indicate.

A victory for Obama along with increased Democrat majorities in both the Senate and House of Representatives will put the Democrats in a position of power they have not enjoyed since 1992.

The American conservative media and blogsphere are engaged ina desperate rearguard action not so much to bolster McCain but to discredit Obama. This is being led by Fox News and such odious conservatives as Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham and Michelle Malkin who all presumably see their power and access to those in power being destroyed by the election of Obama.

McCain could still win but it looks unlikely. I think an Obama Presidency will vastly improve Euro-American relations but that's not to understate the huge challenges facing world leaders in the 2010s. Obama will have to deal with an uncertain Russia and the growing power of China. I do think an Obama Administration will bring Africa back up the world agenda which can be no bad thing.

However, there's still the small matter of an election to win...

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Forward Thinking 101
using simple deduction...

looks like Obama will win the election...

the people have spoken, they want change...finally someone that will change things...hmmm...

1. The overall media controlled by you know who was totally behind Obama...from the start...

2. 28% of Obama's money was donated by republicans...and More than half of the whopping $426.9

million Barack Obama has raised has come from small donors whose names the Obama campaign won't

disclose, plus secret donors from overseas. The internet service providers (ISP) they were able to

trace were from Saudi Arabia , Iran , and other Middle Eastern countries. One of the banks used for

fund transfers was also located in Saudi Arabia. Another concentrated group of donations was traced

to a Chinese ISP with a similar pattern of limited credit card charges. 13,000,000 clustered

donations around $15 each...hmmm when he wins maybe the extra half a billion money donated can be

used for the economy...

3. it was discovered that Obama is a distant cousin of Lynn Cheney...

4. the republicans have never had the courage or concept of picking a woman as a vice presidential

candidate, its not their style... Obama refused several woman and McCain chose a woman...kind of
reversed roles...

5. All Things Considered, August 29, 2008 · The Country song Only in America filled the stadium

Thursday night after Barack Obama's acceptance speech. The song by Brooks and Dunn was also featured
in the last GOP convention and the campaign of George W. Bush.

6. WASHINGTON – With or without a formal title, Colin Powell will have Barack Obama's ear if the

Democratic presidential candidate wins the White House in the Nov. 4 election, the candidate said

Monday Oct. 20th 2008,
"He will have a role as one of my advisers," Barack Obama said on NBC's "Today" in an interview

aired Monday, a day after Powell, a republican, a four-star general and President Bush's former

secretary of state, endorsed him.

hmmm...

wonder why all the republicans have picked Obama...
maybe they want change...I guess either way they win?

they did it better this time...
very clever concept, and they get more clever every time...

we the people feel great we won...
now be happy and get back to work...

any questions....